Following the positive trend over the summer, global equity markets saw weaker performance in September. The MSCI World Index fell by 0.75 %, the US S&P 500 by 0.45 %, the European STOXX Europe 600 by 2.49 % and the Swedish OMXS30 by 1.21 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Underlying economic conditions remained favourable throughout September. Following a strong second-quarter earnings season, corporate fundamentals have continued to underpin the equity market. Corporate earnings, strong order intake and upwardly revised profit forecasts for the year reinforce the picture of a sustained investment cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US economy continues to show strong underlying performance. The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to the range of 3.75\u20134.00 %, whilst at the same time revising its economic growth forecast upwards. GDP is expected to grow by 2.3 % in 2026 and 2.4 % in 2027. Stronger economic activity is positive for corporate demand and profit growth, but at the same time places greater pressure on the demand for capital and energy. The US 10-year yield rose by around 0.5 percentage points in September to just over 5 %. Despite the rise in the US 10-year yield and the price of oil, the stock market has shown resilience, with continued support from corporate profit growth and strong investment activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Sweden, the economic outlook continued to improve. The National Institute of Economic Research\u2019s business barometer rose in September for the fifth month in a row, indicating a stronger-than-normal sentiment in the Swedish economy. At the same time, the household confidence indicator rose to its highest level since December 2021. Sentiment is stronger than normal across all sectors of the business economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The continued willingness to invest in artificial intelligence and data centres was confirmed by Oracle\u2019s quarterly report in September. Turnover increased by 30 % compared with the previous year, whilst revenue from cloud infrastructure rose by 121 %. The contracted order book amounted to 664 billion dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oracle\u2019s report also illustrates how AI investment is gradually spreading throughout the economy. Investment no longer covers just semiconductors and technology, but also data centres, electricity generation, power grids, cooling, automation and other industrial infrastructure. These are areas where several high-quality Nordic companies hold strong global market positions and where investment can generate demand for many years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After several years in which a limited number of large technology companies dominated developments, the market has broadened in 2026. The focus is increasingly on which companies can translate investments into sustainable profit growth, cash flows and returns on invested capital. In our view, this continues to create favourable conditions for active and selective management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our investment model, Outside View, is based on analysing individual events from a historical and global perspective. By identifying the long-term drivers behind companies\u2019 value creation, we seek to distinguish between temporary market movements and changes that will affect companies\u2019 competitiveness for many years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On 29 June, our Swedish fund, NE Sweden, was featured on Di-TV after ranking first amongst around 100 Swedish funds in terms of returns since the start of the year.<\/strong> The feature presented the fund\u2019s investment philosophy, its largest holdings and the long-term trends that characterise our investment work. We view this recognition as confirmation of the value of a disciplined and selective selection of high-quality companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As at 30 June 2026, our Nordic fund, NE Strategy, has received the highest rating, 5 out of 5, for Consistent Return over 5 years, 10 years and since inception. The fund has also received the highest rating, 5 out of 5, for Total Return over 3 years, 5 years and since inception.<\/strong> Total Return and Consistent Return are rating categories within the LSEG Lipper Leaders Rating System and are based on the fund\u2019s historical risk-adjusted returns relative to comparable funds. In 2024, the fund was also named Europe\u2019s best Nordic fund over five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n History shows that periods of strong economic growth and extensive investment often also lead to greater demand for capital, energy and production resources. For the equity market, this means that companies\u2019 profit growth, cash flows and valuations take on greater significance as the cost of capital rises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the course of the year, we have noted increased interest in funds with a clear investment philosophy, a long track record and a consistent investment process. In an investment environment where interest rates, inflation, geopolitics and technological developments continue to influence the markets, confidence in the investment model becomes particularly important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our funds remain focused on companies with strong market positions, high profitability and a good ability to capitalise on long-term structural trends such as digitalisation, automation, electrification and artificial intelligence. In NE Strategy, the weighted expected earnings growth for the next three years amounts to approximately 16.6 % per annum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Strong order intake, upwardly revised profit forecasts and continued high levels of investment activity support the view of robust underlying demand. In an environment where higher interest rates place greater demands on companies\u2019 profitability and capital allocation, we believe that active and selective selection of high-quality companies will continue to be crucial to returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n